Heathrow and Gatwick: The 12 countries that could be moved onto the green list at the next travel review

Lucy Williamson

The Government is reviewing the traffic-light system every three weeks.

That means the next travel announcement should come on Thursday, July 15, with any changes coming into effect the following week, likely on Wednesday, July 21.

Due to the ever-expanding rollout of the Covid vaccine, and the decreasing number of Covid cases in most European countries, a number of countries could move to the green list at the next review.

These include Italy, Germany and Bulgaria are among the countries that could be added to the green list.

Here’s everything you need to know about the upcoming travel review.

What’s the latest on quarantine?

The travel update on Thursday will come just days before fully vaccinated people will be allowed to travel to amber list countries without having to quarantine on their return.

If you aren’t fully vaccinated, those travelling from an amber location must self-isolate at home for 10 days.

If you are travelling to a country on the green list, you will need to take a pre-departure test as well as a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test on or before day two of your arrival back into the UK – but will not need to quarantine on return (unless you receive a positive result).

Which countries could be added?

A former director of strategy at British Airways has predicted 12 countries that could be placed in the low-risk green tier this week. But which ones are being predicted to make the move to green?

Robert Boyle, British Airways’ former strategy chief, claims to have cracked the algorithm the Government is using to decide the green list.

It includes seven-day infection rates being below 20 per 100,000 people and fewer than 1.5 per cent of Covid tests returning positive results, as well as high vaccination rates.

By his metrics, there are 12 countries that could be added to the green list at the next review.

They are: Italy, Bulgaria, Germany, Canada, Austria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Switzerland, Slovakia, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Mr Boyle described Canada as his “top prediction” for moving into the green tier, as it has low rates of coronavirus cases and test positivity, and its vaccine rollout programme is “catching up fast” to the UK’s.

But he noted that the North American country does not allow visitors from the UK.

He wrote: “It is hard to see a better candidate for the green list.

“The Canadian authorities continue to bar entry to Canada to British nationals.

“But so do Australia and New Zealand and they are on the green list.

“It may be a matter of timing though, as I’m sure politicians would prefer to announce a simultaneous relaxation of travel restrictions.”

Before the pandemic, around 724,000 British nationals visited Canada annually.

Mr Boyle claimed Hong Kong “ought to be green” due to having “essentially zero cases and great testing data”, and “a similar case could be made for Taiwan”.

On countries moving to higher-risk categories, he wrote that case rates are “rising fast” in Malta and Israel, meaning there is a “real chance” that both countries, currently on the green list, will “at least get put on the watchlist”, which is used to highlight green locations that could soon be moved to the amber tier.

He also predicted that Indonesia and Sierra Leone could be moved from the amber list to the red list due to the “very high percentage of travellers testing positive on arrival”, while Bahrain could go in the opposite direction because of “case rates plummeting”.

People arriving in the UK from a red-list location must spend 11 nights at a quarantine hotel, at a cost of £1,750 for solo travellers.

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